Strategic mindset

In avalanche-prone backcountry areas, knowing where not to go is as crucial as knowing where to go. This concept is central to managing avalanche risk, with decisions made before venturing out being essential for safety. Experienced guides have developed strategies that consistently reduce risk. One of these strategies is called the strategic mindset. Roger Atkins, a heli-ski guide working for Canadian Mountain Holidays, formalized this into a framework that has become a cornerstone in avalanche risk management, especially in North America . This strategic mindset is now widely adopted across the North American guiding and avalanche industry, influencing professional teams and avalanche bulletins. The seven operational mindsets —from "Assessment" to "Open Season"— help guide decision-making. The approach is a mental framework that guides the evaluation of conditions, terrain, and risks. It involves considering factors like visibility, avalanche hazards, snow, weather conditions, and other natural hazards, such as glacier crevasses and cornices. The framework is all about assessing the hazards and ensuring the guides have the same understanding and situational awareness. At the guide meetings in Norway, the framework is used to support three key risk reduction measures:

Identifying uncertainty and agreeing on information that is needed to reduce the uncertainty.
Suggesting a mindset that matches the current conditions.
Discussing what terrain to seek and what terrain to avoid.

Mind-set

Typical Conditions

Typical Operating Strategy

Assessment

(Check it out)

There is a high degree of uncertainty about conditions, such as when first encountering the terrain
for the season, entering new terrain, following a
lengthy period with limited observations, or after
substantial weather events.

Observe and assess. Information gathering.

Select conservative terrain in
which to operate confidently
while more information is gathered to gain confidence in the
hazard assessment.

Stepping Out

(Step it up)

Conditions are improving and/or we are gaining
confidence in our assessment. The ‘stepping out’
mind-set covers a range from stepping out very
cautiously to stepping out confidently. Stepping out
cautiously occurs when there is limited confidence
in extrapolation from the available observations, for
example when persistent slab instabilities are becoming less easily triggered and for large storm
instabilities in the early stages of recovery. Stepping out confidently occurs when one is confident to
extrapolate from the available observations

Consider steeper options. Conditions allow expanding into more dangerous terrain.

When stepping out cautiously, it
is common to seek specific information about each piece of
terrain under consideration before opening that terrain. When
stepping out confidently, it is
common to open a broader set
of terrain with particular characteristics based on extrapolation
of evidence from other sites.

Status Quo

(No change)

There is no substantial change in conditions, the
evidence continues to support the current hazard
assessment, and the comfort level for exposure
under these conditions has been reached

Continuing conditions. We expect no major change from the previous day.

Change nothing and continue
operating as before

Stepping Back

(Pull Back)

Weather changes increase the hazard or when
events or observations cause uncertainty about the
validity of the existing assessment. A small step
back may result from minor or subtle weather
changes while substantial weather events or observations of unexpected avalanches may result in a
large step back

Change in situation. Increased hazard. Seek safer terrain.

The typical strategy when stepping back is to close terrain that
has become suspect based on
weather changes or evidence
that creates uncertainty.

Entrenchment

(Keep it mellow)

Dealing with a well-established persistent instability. Entrenchment is not a preferred operating mode
and requires discipline to sustain it for the necessary time; this is the last resort short of closing operations completely

Typically, a situation with a prominent persistent weak layer and/or situation with a great deal of uncertainty.

Limit skiing to a small terrain
selection assessed as having
acceptable risk until the situation
has clearly changed. New evidence continues to be gathered
and monitored for changing
conditions, but new terrain is
only opened if there is compelling evidence that it is advisable
to do so (e.g. an avalanche was
observed that definitely removed
the layer of concern from that
terrain)

Open Season

(Fell free)

The hazard assessment suggests that only small
avalanches are possible in very isolated terrain features, and there is a high degree of confidence in
the hazard assessment

Most terrain safe. Stable conditions and low uncertainty.

Any skiable terrain may be considered with due attention to the
possibility of small surface avalanches.

Spring Diurnal

(Time it)

The hazard assessment suggests that the only
substantial hazard is from wet avalanches during
the afternoon thaw phase of the diurnal freeze-thaw
cycle

Adjust terrain to temperature cycle.

Watch closely for adequate
overnight freeze and avoid avalanche terrain during the thaw
phase of the cycle

Read the full article from ISSW2014 here