Avalanche forecast for Nordenskiöld Land Thursday 2019-01-31

Highest danger level per day:
3
Considerable
Published:

Be careful in lee areas with fresh storm slabs. A persistent weak layer of facets may also be triggered, especially where the snow cover is thin.

Illustrasjon av ferdselsråd Avoid terrain traps and steep slopes until the new snow has stabilized. The avalanche problem is generally widely distributed on any steep slope with deep new snow. Look for cohesive new snow that breaks apart or is poorly bonded to the old snow. Cracks around your skis are a typical dangersign.
Illustrasjon av ferdselsråd Avoid skiing in avalanche terrain (steep terrain more than 30 degrees and in runout zones). NB, remote triggering is likely. Make very conservative route choices, especially in unknown terrain, after snowfall and if temperatures rise. Identifying areas where the weak layer is present might be difficult and requires experience. Danger signs are whoumpf-sounds, cracking and recent avalanches. However, absence of signs does not mean it is safe.

New snow (slab avalanches)

Buried weak layer of new snow

Read more about the avalanche problem
3 - Large
Low additional load
Specific steep slopes
Possible

Persistent weak layer (slab avalanches)

Buried weak layer of faceted snow near surface

Read more about the avalanche problem
3 - Large
High additional load
Isolated steep slopes
Possible

What are avalanche problems?

Observations the last 3 days (map placed)

3 mm precipitation, up to 12 mm in the most exposed areas.
Strong breeze from southeast., change to moderate gale from the southeast during the afternoon.
-9 °C to -6 °C at 700 m a.s.l.
Cloudy.

For updated info, please visit yr.no
4 mm precipitation, up to 10 mm in the most exposed areas.
Strong breeze from southeast.
-7 °C to -4 °C at 700 m a.s.l.
Cloudy.

For updated info, please visit yr.no

Observations the last 3 days

Nordenskiöld Land / Larsbre Øst

Snow

31.01.2019 kl. 20:00

547 masl

Kjetil@obskorps (****)

Image Of Snow Profile
Image 1 of 3 Of:  Snow Profile Copyright: 
Image Of Tests
Image 2 of 3 Of:  Tests Copyright:  Comment:  Snøprofilen i virkeligheten
Image Of Tests
Image 3 of 3 Of:  Tests Copyright:  Comment:  Q1

Danger Sign

No signs observed

Tests

ECTP6@17cmQ1 Poor

Snow Cover

Det har ila de siste par dagene lagt seg endel fokksnø i vestvendte heng. Fra omlag 5 til 30 med 4f til 1f. Under dette er det som registrering 178146

Avalanche Danger Assessment

2 Moderate Observasjon tatt for område Longyearbyen. Et stabiliserende fokksnøproblem over et vedvarende kantkornproblem. Alle høyder i Vest-lig sektor. Mulig step-down. Med vinddreining til sør, og etter svalbardforhold endel snø tilgjengelig så vil fokksnøproblemet også komme i norlig sektor. Forecast correct

Avalanche Problems

Dry slab avalanche Poor bonding between layers in wind deposited snow Within half a meter The overlying slab is soft. Easy to trigger 2 - Medium N, NE, SW, W, NW Fokksnøproblemet er der enda, men har stabilsert seg noe fra onsdagen.

Dry slab avalanche Buried weak layer of faceted snow above a crust The weak layer collapses easily and clean (easy propagation). The collapsing weak layer is thin < 3 cm. Easy to trigger 3 - Large N, NE, SW, W, NW Dette kantkornproblemet finnes over alt, men varierende grad av hvor begravet det er. Det er enten få områder og lett å løse ut, eller noen og vanskelig å løse ut.

Weather

-5 °C 5 m/s from E ←

Snow Profile

5 cm 4F DF 0 mm/0 mm, 7 cm 1F DF 0 mm/0 mm, 5 cm P RG 0 mm/0 mm, 1 cm 4F FC 1 mm/0 mm, 1 cm K/1F MFcr 0 mm/0 mm, 1 cm 4F FC 1 mm/0 mm, 1 cm P MFcr 0 mm/0 mm, 13 cm 1F RGxf 1 mm/0 mm, 33 cm P RGxf 1 mm/0 mm, 3 cm K IF 0 mm/0 mm, 2 cm 1F FC 2 mm/0 mm, 25 cm P MF 0 mm/0 mm, 5 cm 1F FC 2 mm/0 mm 1 test connected to snow profile Temperaturen i profilen er ikke riktig.

ObsID: 178619

Nordenskiöld Land / SVALBARD

Snow

31.01.2019 kl. 12:35

545 masl

HoltH@unis (***)

Image Of Snow Cover
Image 1 of 5 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  HoltH@unis Comment:  soft snow surface.
Image Of Snow Profile
Image 2 of 5 Of:  Snow Profile Copyright: 
Image Of Snow Profile
Image 3 of 5 Of:  Snow Profile Copyright: 
Image Of Snow Cover
Image 4 of 5 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  Comment:  mot helvetiafjellet / adventdalen
Image Of Snow Cover
Image 5 of 5 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  Comment:  adventalen mot gruve 7

Danger Sign

Whumpf sound Område: I denne fjellsiden. Beskrivelse: Bare et drønn på veien opp rundt 250 moh

Snow Cover

125 cm in total Some snow drift 0 cm new snow Snow line at 0 masl Storm slab (soft slab) Dry Variable snow cover as normal for Spitsbergen. The easterly winds over the past few days have had their way with the snow cover, moving most of the fresh snow into wind deposits on westerly aspects. On Arctowskifjellet, 1F wind slabs 10-50 cm deep lie in most leeward locations. Ridges and easterly aspects I observed were blown back down to the most recent melt freeze crust. Wind has densified the most recent snow to the point that most of the snow from this week is now no longer readily available for wind transport.

Avalanche Danger Assessment

2 Moderate Based on my observation trip today, I came up with the following inputs to ADAM: Fokksnø problemet: mulig utløsningssannsynlighet to str. 2. Vedvarende svakt lag problemet: lite sannsynlig to str. 3. This gives a moderat (2) rating. With continued mild weather, the wind slab problem should continue to stabilize in the absence of strong winds or more precipitation. Mild weather won't make the faceted layers worse, but looks like we are probably stuck with a persistent weak layer problem for the foreseeable future. Forecast too high The forecast for today describes the avalanche problems well. It's possible that more snow has fallen and wind slab problems are worse further south in the region, but based on my observations in this location today, a moderate rating seems more appropriate.

Avalanche Problems

Dry slab avalanche Buried weak layer of faceted snow beneath a crust Within a meter The collapsing weak layer is thin < 3 cm. A big and identifiable crystal in the weak layer. Very difficult to trigger 3 - Large SW, W, NW So far I have only observed this avalanche problem on westerly aspects, so am a little unsure of its distribution regionally. Observed well-developed facets both over and under the most recent melt-freeze crust in the snowpack. In stability tests, the slightly larger facets under the crust were more reactive. In a modified ECT in which I removed the top 30 cm of wind slab and tested the facet layers specifically, i was able to get the facet layer under the crust to propagate after 19 (ECTP 19). However this layer is well-bridged by the hard melt-forms over it and I think it would be fairly difficult to trigger an avalanche on this layer. Nevertheless, in the event that this layer was affected by a skier, snowmobiler, or a smaller wind slab avalanche, this layer has the potential to produce sizable avalanches. Low probability / high consequence scenario.

Dry slab avalanche Poor bonding between layers in wind deposited snow Within half a meter The collapsing weak layer is thin < 3 cm. Difficult to trigger 2 - Medium SW, W, NW Wind slabs from earlier in the week appear to be stabilizing nicely, based on my observations. Stability tests show that it is possible to initiate a fracture in the fresh wind slabs, but these fractures are not propagating. Stomping on fresh drifts did not yield any signs of instability. In general, the wind slabs in this location felt fairly dense, homogenous, and decently well bonded.

Weather

Snow -5 °C 5 m/s from E ← 50% clouds Broken clouds most of the morning / early afternoon. Light snow on Arctowskifjellet between 1130 and 1330. Light easterly winds, fairly warm air.

Avalanche Activity

31. Jan. During the day No avalanche activity

ObsID: 178571

Nordenskiöld Land / SVALBARD

Snow

30.01.2019 kl. 19:09

663 masl

HoltH@unis (***)

Image Of Snow Cover
Image 1 of 1 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  HoltH@unis Comment:  West aspect about 400 moh. 30 cm accumulation. 4F+ hardness slab.

Snow Cover

Moderate snow drift 5 cm new snow Much loose snow (10-30cm) Dry Strongly aspect dependent snow cover. Wind has moved the snow around quite a bit in the past 48 hours. Westerly aspects have up 50 cm wind deposited snow since Sunday. Most western aspects I observed had between 20-30 cm snow accumulation in the past 48 hours. Eastern aspects I observed (Lars Hiertafjellet to Larsbreen) are mostly stripped by the wind to the old snow surface.

Avalanche Problems

Dry slab avalanche Poor bonding between layers in wind deposited snow Within half a meter The collapsing weak layer is thin < 3 cm. The overlying slab is soft. SW, W, NW I only conducted quick handshear tests while skinning up. Handshears breaking cleanly down 20 cm from the surface on a density change in the new snow in the deeper accumulations. Unsure how widespread this problem is. I didn't see any other signs of instability in the new snow, but also avoided avalanche terrain. It does seem that the new wind deposits are stabilizing fairly quickly due to the absence of shooting cracks etc even when stomping on ridgetop cornices, but I didn't trust the new snow enough to ski over 30 degrees this evening.

Weather

Snow -5 °C 8 m/s from E ← 60% clouds Snowing S-1 for the two hours I was out. Sky was broken clouds, some stars visible. Calm conditions on Longyearbreen, moderate easterly winds above 500 moh.

ObsID: 178440

Nordenskiöld Land / Longyearbyen

Snow

30.01.2019 kl. 15:45

25 masl

Martini@unis (****)

Notes

Mer snø SØ i regionen enn i Lyb. I går var det kraftig snøfokk og mye nedbør i Svea. Stengt vei over Marthabreen til Lunckefjellet pga ikke klarte å holde veien åpen med brøyting. I Fardalen rapporteres det om stedvis mye løs, ubunden snø, noen plasser med >50 cm.Registration/178264 viser 10-15 cm nysnø på Longyearbreen i går kveld. I Longyearbyen så roet været seg i går ettermiddag, lite vind og ingen nedbør. Ingen nedbør i dag i Longyearbyen. Oppsummert: Til dels mye løs snø tilgjengelig for transport, mer i Østlig og Sørlig del av regionen. I Longyearbyen område ingen nedbør så lang i dag, vind i høyden. Snøfokk i terrenget og vi får pålagring hovedsakelig i vest vendt terreng. Sjikt i fokksnø / ned føyka nysnø er hovedproblem i dag og morgen. Utbredelse noen brattheng,lett å løse ut/ moderat på lagring, svekkelse i dag. Forventa str. 2. Pga. kantkorn problemet i snødekke så kan skred som går i fokksnø påvirke vedvarende svakt lag med » step down» og forventa skred str 3 – store. FG 3 i dag og i morgen.

ObsID: 178414

Nordenskiöld Land / SVALBARD

Snow

29.01.2019 kl. 18:30

450 masl

HoltH@unis (***)

Snow Cover

Moderate snow drift 10 cm new snow Much loose snow (10-30cm) Mellom 5-20 cm nysnø det siste døgnet. Flak (4F) dannelse i leområder opp til 25 cm. New snow is upside down where affected by the wind.

Weather

Snow -5 °C 8 m/s from E ← 100% clouds Nesten vindstille på Longyearbreen, vindfullt på ryggen opp mot Lars Hierta.

ObsID: 178264

Nordenskiöld Land / Sukkertoppen løsneområde

Snow

29.01.2019 kl. 16:44

142 masl

Kjetil@obskorps (****)

Image Of Snow Cover
Image 1 of 9 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  Comment:  Sukkertoppen
Image Of Snow Cover
Image 2 of 9 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  Comment:  Sørlig del av sukkertoppen
Image Of Snow Cover
Image 3 of 9 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  Comment:  over nybyen
Image Of Snow Cover
Image 4 of 9 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  Comment:  Nybyen mot sør øst
Image Of Snow Cover
Image 5 of 9 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  Comment:  Gruve 2b
Image Of Snow Cover
Image 6 of 9 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  Comment:  Sverdrupbyen
Image Of Snow Cover
Image 7 of 9 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  Comment:  Veien til sverdrupbyen
Image Of Snow Cover
Image 8 of 9 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  Comment:  Platåfjellet
Image Of Snow Profile
Image 9 of 9 Of:  Snow Profile Copyright: 

Danger Sign

Recent snowdrift

Tests

ECTP20@29cmQ1

Snow Cover

Rundt Longyearbyen er det forholdsvis lite snø. Registrasjon 178146 gjelder enda, bare at nå har det kommet litt fokksnø oppå i veslige le-heng. Kantkornproblemet som jeg i går mente var værst over 400m finner jeg også nå på 100m. Så i alle høyder.

Avalanche Danger Assessment

2 Moderate Gjelder Longyearbyen. Foreløpig lite snø. Kantkornproblem hele veien opp, litt vanskelig å løse ut, men om det kommer blir det store skred. Med mer snø og pålagring nå så har vi en økende fokksnøproblem

Avalanche Problems

Dry slab avalanche Poor bonding between layers in wind deposited snow Within half a meter Easy to trigger 2 - Medium N, SW, W, NW begynner nå etterhvert å bli et fokksnøproblem. Ikke ille enda fra sukkertoppen, men man kan tenke seg at dette forverrer med mer vindtransport

Dry slab avalanche Buried weak layer of faceted snow near surface Within half a meter The weak layer collapses easily and clean (easy propagation). The collapsing weak layer is thin < 3 cm. Difficult to trigger 3 - Large N, SW, W, NW above 0 masl Dette kantkornproblemet er hele veien fra 0 meter og opp. Mulig verre i vestlig sektor.

Weather

Snow -5 °C 10 m/s from E ← 100% clouds Snøbyger, og litt snøfokk

Snow Profile

3 cm F PP 0 mm/0 mm, 23 cm 1F-P/1F+ RG 0 mm/0 mm, 3 cm 4F FC 1 mm/0 mm, 10 cm P RG 1 mm/0 mm, 3 cm 4F FC 2 mm/0 mm, 27 cm K MF 0 mm/0 mm 1 test connected to snow profile

ObsID: 178253

Nordenskiöld Land / Todalen

Snow

29.01.2019 kl. 12:04

100 masl

Martini@unis (****)

Snow Cover

Some snow drift 15 cm new snow Much loose snow (10-30cm) Dry Rapport fra UNIS scooterkurs som har kjørt UNIS-Todalen - UNIS. Kraftig snøfokk ute i Adventdalen. Inne i Todalen er man i le og mindre vind < 5m/s, der har det kommet opptil 15 cm nysnø siste døgn og det snør fortsatt. I vestvendt del av elveleiet har det lagt seg opp opptil 1 meter med myk vindpakket / nysnø. Nedsynk til hofta til fots. Dette gjelder for noen områder i vestvendt sider i elveleiet i Todalen

Weather

Snow -4 °C from E ← 100% clouds 10m/s ute i Adventdalen fra øst, tett snøfokk. Nært vindstille inne Todalen, men tett snøvær

ObsID: 178219

Nordenskiöld Land / SVALBARD

Snow

29.01.2019 kl. 11:54

25 masl

Keyser@LRKHskredgrupe (Unknown)

Image Of Weather
Image 1 of 1 Of:  Weather Copyright:  mnskeyser Comment:  Bra sikt i byen, men ute i Adventdalen kjørte man fra brøytestikke til brøytestikke utover i morges.

Weather

Snow -4 °C 11 m/s from E ← Snø og fokk i Longyearbyen

ObsID: 178214

Nordenskiöld Land / Larsbre Øst

Snow

28.01.2019 kl. 22:16

547 masl

Kjetil@obskorps (****)

Image Of Snow Profile
Image 1 of 5 Of:  Snow Profile Copyright: 
Image Of Snow Cover
Image 2 of 5 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  Comment:  Område med fokksnø m kantkorn under til venstre i bildet, og område med avblåst skare til høyre
Image Of Avalanche Problems
Image 3 of 5 Of:  Avalanche Problems Copyright:  Comment:  400moh, kantkorn 8cm ned i snødekket, over et p flak med fokksnø. 2mm raster
Image Of Snow Cover
Image 4 of 5 Of:  Snow Cover Copyright:  Comment:  Under 400moh er det et tykkere lag med begynnende kantkorn under hard fokksnø
Image Of Snow Profile
Image 5 of 5 Of:  Snow Profile Copyright:  Comment:  Snøprofilen i virkeligheten. Ser kantkorn ca 8cm ned over et veldig tynt skarelag

Danger Sign

No signs observed

Tests

ECTP3@9cmQ2 Poor Tar testen flere plasser, og noen plasser der det flaket øverst er tynnere, eller snøen under bruddet er usammenhengende får jeg ikke bruddforplantning

Snow Cover

Some snow drift Varierende, og etterhvert vanskelig å få med alle nyanser i alle himmelretninger, hvor det er fokksnø, skare, avblåst. Området er preget av vind og sterk kulde de siste ukene, og overflaten er veldig hard, enten det er skare eller fokksnø øverst. Litt vind fra SØ i det siste døgnet har lagt litt fokksnø i NV leområder. Det ligger også litt eldre fokksnø i vest-vendte sider. Så der det er fokksnø av de to sistnevnte så er det kantkorn under. I høyden, over 400m er dette kantkornet over et tynt skarelag. Under 400m er det ikke så velutviklet kantkorn som gradvis går over til begynnende kant.

Avalanche Danger Assessment

2 Moderate Komplisert snødekke som for det meste er hardt og vanseklig å påvirke noe svake lag lengere ned. Men i enkelte områder er det lettere å påvirke et vedvarende svakt lag av kantkorn under fokksnøen. Dette er vanskelig å lese fra overflaten. Økende vind og litt snø fra SØ vil nok lage et fokksnøproblem Vanskelig å være veldig bastant med så varierende forhold, men mulig det skredproblemet med kantkorn lengere ned i snødekket bare kan nevnes i tekst? Det andre skredproblemet kan stå som det står, eller være; lett å løse ut og få heng.

Weather

Snow -10 °C 7 m/s from E ← 100% clouds

Avalanche Problems

Dry slab avalanche Buried weak layer of faceted snow above a crust The collapsing weak layer is thin < 3 cm. Easy to trigger 2 - Medium N, SW, W, NW Mener dette problemet er i alle himmelretninger. Mulig mest tydelig i NV-lige halvsirkel. Uansett der det er ferskere fokksnø over skare. Mener også at problemet er tydeligst over ca 400m det det er oppå et tynt skarelag. Utbredelsen er varierende. Det er tydeligst der fokksnøen over har akkurat rette tykkelsen. Og vanskelig å påvirke der fokksnøen over er hard og tykk. Så det er enten få heng og lett og løse ut, eller noen heng og vanskelig å løse ut.

Snow Profile

1 cm F PP 0 mm/0 mm, 8 cm P/1F RG 0 mm/0 mm, 1 cm 4F FC 1 mm/0 mm, 1 cm P MFcr 0 mm/0 mm, 13 cm 1F RGxf 1 mm/0 mm, 33 cm P RGxf 1 mm/0 mm, 3 cm K IF 0 mm/0 mm, 2 cm 1F FC 2 mm/0 mm, 25 cm P MF 0 mm/0 mm, 5 cm 1F FC 2 mm/0 mm -12 °C @ 0 cm, -13 °C @ 5 cm, -13 °C @ 10 cm, -12.9 °C @ 15 cm, -12.5 °C @ 20 cm, -11.7 °C @ 30 cm, -10.7 °C @ 40 cm, -10 °C @ 50 cm 1 test connected to snow profile

ObsID: 178146

The bulletin does not include a detailed text about the avalanche conditions. This is only given in Norwegian. Translate it using google translate if you like. The text result will be informative, and most likely amusing

For planning your trip and recognizing avalanche terrain, use maps.

Norway has 1:50 000 maps for the whole country. Maps can be bought at bookstores and sports shops, or printed from the net.

For slope angle maps, download the app Varsom Regobs on App Store | Google Play or see our slope angle map at senorge.no ("helning" means slope angle).

Modelled snowpack and historic and current weather information can be found on the webpage senorge.no. This site uses information from the weather stations and interpolate values from the stations for gridded maps.

Detailed weather forecast can be found online at www.yr.no or www.storm.no. Yr.no is also in English, but the weather in text format is only given in Norwegian.